52 cards in a deck, 52 weeks in a year, 52 divided by 4 (election cycle) is a very unlucky 13. 52 years ago, 1968 was one of the most tumultuous years in U.S. history as exhibited by two tragic political assassinations, riots in Washington DC, Baltimore, Chicago, and other cities that resulted in over 40 lives lost. It was the year of a deadly influenza pandemic and it was also the year when the American public turned against the Vietnam War (after the Tet offensive in January of the year). President Lyndon B. Johnson was rocked by the chaos and decided not to run for re-election and stood down. In short, the country was in disarray. By November, Richard Nixon was elected president on a platform of law and order and a promise to end the Vietnam War bringing “Peace with Honor” to the nation. One would think that such an environment would create a tough investment climate, but one would be wrong. From 1967 to the end of 1968 the bulls reigned supreme, with intermittent bouts of selling by the bears. Much like this year, 1968 had a low for stocks in late March-early April with an advance that peaked in late July – early August. The market then corrected for about a month, then reversed to hit a high for the year in late December. There are many political uncertainties today with much talk about a contested drawn-out presidential election. So far, equity markets peaked on or about September 2nd, with a pullback in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) of about 12% in just 6 trading days. This could be just one of those bouts of intermittent selling such as the market experienced in 1968. We don’t know for sure, but the bulls are back on their heels and will have to prove themselves once again. Keep an eye on the news flow and how markets react to what is sure to be an active political season. Always remember to use stop orders to protect capital.
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