Bear Growl: The Rear-View Mirror

Monday, June 29, 2020 – DJIA 25595.8 +2.3%, NDX 9961.16 +1.012, SPX 3053.24 +1.47%
Banks were reported to be pulling back on consumer credit, as they are finding it difficult to ascertain the true creditworthiness of applicants. The Fed opened its balance sheet to the purchase of 500 billion in corporate bonds (markets reacted off this news). Gilead Sciences (GILD) priced Remdisivier at 3120.00 for common treatment length. India banned dozens of China developed apps, in response to the Himalayan territorial dispute (skirmish) which is all about water rights. Although there is much hope Boeing (BA) will have its 737-Max jets recertified, the news flow on canceled orders continues (Norwegian Air cxl 92 units). Headlines on growing COVID-19 infection rates appear to be less influential on the market. Keep an eye on death rates and stress on hospitals. Chesapeake Energy (CHK) filed for Bankruptcy, as the over-indebted oil patch continues to unravel.

Tuesday, June 30, 2020 – DJIA 25812.88 +.8%, NDX 10156.85 +1.02%, SPX 3100.29 +1.54%.
China advanced its grip on Hong Kong. Airbus announced job cuts of 15K or 11% of its workforce. Dr. Fauci once again warned of a potential 100K daily infection rate if openings were not curtailed. With continued shutdowns affecting the entertainment industry, Cirque du Soleil filed for bankruptcy protection in Canada. Shell takes 22 billion dollar write down on assets, as oil and gas prices continue to slump.

Wednesday, July 1, 2020 – DJIA 25734.97 -.3%, NDX 10279.25 +1.0319, SPX 3115.86 +.5%
Saudi Arabia again threatened miscreant cartel members of a potential oil price war. Big auto companies (F, GM, FCAU, TM) posted big drops in sales for the quarter (zero % financing not moving the needle). COVID-19 headlines continue (and the politics of the virus). Off the front page, Asian political reaction to China’s crackdown on Hong Kong and the border war with India continued, as Australia bolsters its defense spending.

Thursday, July 2, 2020 – DJIA 25827.36 +.4%, NDX 10341.89 +1%, SPX 3130.01 +.45%
Jobs report showed much better additions than anticipated (+4.8MM). Equity markets popped on the news but faded as traders/investors/ analysts parsed the release. Seeing that much of the increase came from leisure/hospitality which could be easily reversed due to reinstated lockdowns. Exxon Mobil (XOM) warned on earnings.

The Week Ahead:  A New Quarter Begins

9:45 amMarkit services PMI (final)June
10 am
ISM nonmanufacturing index
USDA weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections

8:55 am
10 am
4:30 pm
Johnson Redbook Retail sales
Jolts job openings
API data for crude, gas , and distillates
--5 million

7 am
10:30 am
3 pm
MBA Mortgage Applications
DOE report on crude, gasoline and distillates
Consumer Credit
---$69 billion

8:30 amInitial jobless claims July 4

8:30 amContinuing jobless claims June 27
10 amWholesale inventoriesMay
10:30 am
Nat Gas Inventories

8:30 amProducer price index (final demand)June
1:00 pm Baker Hughes Rig Count
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