Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus in the U.S, the markets have been boosted by massive infusions of cash by the government on the fiscal and monetary side to keep the economy afloat. As the economic picture has improved over the last few months, the perceived need for additional emergency aid has diminished. That being the case, Senate Republicans and House Democrats are negotiating an additional relief package but are not close to making a deal as the pressure to get something done has abated.  Should some good news on that front happen over the coming week or so, it may be a selling opportunity, as the market is forward-looking, and the attention and fears of market participants will be on the upcoming November 3 presidential election.
 
Looking at the past 5 election year cycles:
 
20 years ago, in 2000 (an open seat for president) the S&P 500 hit a high on September 1 @1530.01 finding a low on October 18th at 1305.79 a 14.69% decline.
 
16 years ago, in 2004 (for the seat of a sitting president) the index hit an autumn high on October 7 @1142.05 then traded to a low on October 25 @1090.29 a 4.5% decline.
 
12 years ago, in 2008 (an open seat for president) the market in the late summer-early autumn was under selling pressure as the sub-prime financial crisis came to the forefront of investor attention. The S&P 500 hit a high on August 11 @ 1313.15 and proceeded to decline to 839.8 on October 10th a decline of 36%. There was an intermittent rally into the 14th @ 1044.31 high with follow-through selling
into October 28th at 845.27.
 
8 years ago, in 2012 (for the seat of a sitting president) the S&P 500 hit autumn high on September 14th 1474.51, and traded to a low before the election on October 26 @ 1403.28 a decline of 4.8%.
 
4 years ago,  in 2016 (an open seat for president) the S&P500 found a late summer high on August 15th @ 2193.81 and found a low on November 4th @ 2083.79 a 5% decline.

We will note and not forget the epic overnight trading on the election night declaration of Trump as the new president-elect, where we saw the S&P500 futures collapse, only to recover by the following morning.
 
Currently, in 2020, there is the prospect of a contested election and period of uncertainty after election night. Such uncertainty would not be a bullish development. In 2000 the presidential election was contested (Bush v. Gore). From the high of November 6 @ 1438.46, the S&P 500 declined until December 1 @ 1307.02 a 9.1% decline. Subsequently, Bush v. Gore was then decided by SCOTUS on December 12 in favor of Bush.

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